Model Performance

Live Evidence Accumulating
Day 0 of 10
Tracking since Mar 26, 2026 Awaiting first resolved slate 10 days to threshold

Model: xgb-pts-20260419-090937

Market: PTS — Points

Retrained: Apr 19, 2026

Training window: Mar 20, 2026 → Apr 18, 2026

Val RMSE: 7.7696

Results by Strength Band

📊

Awaiting resolved results for PTS

Band statistics appear once PTS picks have been compared against real box scores (same pipeline for every market — not gated on PTS).

Three things need to happen first:

  1. BDL Starter+ subscription — unlocks the /stats box score endpoint
  2. ingest_box_scores fills fact_player_game_log with actual stats
  3. resolve_prop_results runs nightly and writes hit/miss outcomes to fact_prop_results

Cumulative Flat-Unit P&L

No resolved results yet — chart will appear once picks are graded.

Summary

Max Drawdown
+0.00 u
Longest Loss Streak
0

Notes: XGBoost regressor — PTS market — walk-forward 80/20 split

⚠ Decision support only. No confidence percentages shown until calibration is formally validated.